Cards have been laid out on the bargaining table and everyone has put on poker faces. As an observer, it is difficult to predict how this hand is going to play out.

The principles are sending out signals they have a strong hand and not terribly panicked about public education's fortune. Yet to those of us unskilled in high level negotiations, circumstances do not look promising.

Contracts with elementary and secondary school teachers in Ontario's public schools expired a week ago and the provincial government and teachers' unions are solidified in positions that create a sizable divide at the bargaining table. To date, teachers appear unwilling to take what the provincial government is willing to give.

Premier Dalton McGuinty and the Liberal government are willing to provide money for four-year agreements containing annual three per cent salary increases. According to Education Minister Kathleen Wynne, there is also cash for more teachers, support staff and student supervision.

School boards and unions unable to reach agreements based on this framework by Nov. 30 will be forced to settle for two per cent annual salary increases for the next two years.

So far, several unions, including elementary and secondary school teachers in Ontario Catholic schools, have accepted the new framework agreement and are headed towards long-term labour peace. However, the Ontario Secondary School Teachers' Federation (OSSTF) and the Elementary Teachers Federation of Ontario (ETFO) have so far rejected the framework deal.

The OSSTF wants to focus negotiations at the local board level, not at provincial framework discussion tables. The union is asking the government for flexibility to use government funding in a manner that meets the unique needs of individual school boards.

The ETFO walked away from provincial talks claiming the government is unwilling to provide elementary schools with the same level of funding it gives high schools. High schools currently receive about $711 more per a student than elementary schools, the federation argues.

This week, ETFO President David Clegg said the union would not sign a long-term agreement that does not ensure funding equity and close the funding gap between elementary and secondary schools.

OSSTF President Ken Coran recently issued some strong statements at the organization's annual Summer Leadership Conference that had the ring of fighting words. "Our strength, paired with our willingness to act is how we have created history and how we will continue to break new ground in the future," Coran said.

For its part, the local school board has made it clear it is playing at the negotiation table with the government's money. Peel District School Board Chair Janet McDougald said any settlement reached with teachers must be fully funded by the province.

Despite positions that seem at odds, the major players tell us unrest in our classrooms can be avoided this fall.

I can't tell who's holding all the cards anymore. What is obvious though is parents and students are watching the hand play out with no cards on the negotiation table, but the most at stake in the game.